Recent trends in premarital fertility in sub-Saharan Africa]Évolution récente de la fécondité prénuptiale en Afrique sub-saharienne

Shelley Clark, Alissa Koski, Emily Smith-Greenaway Age at first marriage has been rising throughout sub-Saharan Africa for more than twenty-five years. The median age at first marriage has increased by an average of 1-2 years across the region but substantial variation in age at first marriage remains (Garenne 2004). In some western and eastern African countries including Burkina Faso, Guinea, Malawi, Mali, and Niger, the median age at first marriage among women remains below 18 years (Koski, Clark, and Nandi 2017). In contrast, in several southern African countries where marriage has historically occurred relatively late, the median age at marriage has risen rapidly and is now over 25 years among women in Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa (Garenne 2004). Delaying marriage increases the amount of time that women spend at risk of premarital pregnancy, which has led some researchers to presume that premarital childbearing will become more common in the region (Gage-Brendon and Meekers 1993; Gage 1998; Harwood-Lejeune 2001; Singh, Sedgh, and Hussain 2010). Although marrying later increases the risk of premarital childbearing, simultaneous changes in young women’s reproductive behavior may offset the effects of this trend. Net changes in premarital fertility will also depend on country-specific trends in premarital sexual activity, contraceptive use, and abortion. In a recently published paper (Clark, Koski, and Smith-Greenaway 2017), we measured trends in premarital fertility over a 25-year period in 27 countries to examine the degree to which these opposing influences affect its prevalence.